With the exception ofSully, which continues to show impressive staying power, September for the most part was marked by disappointing results at the box office.The Magnificent Seven,Blair Witch, andStorksare all poised to come in well below expectations, and the intense and well madeDeepwater Horizonlooks to finish as one of the lowest grossing big budget disaster films in recent memory.
This year’s October features (big surprise) several sequels, some awards hopefuls, and a few adaptations.The Girl on the Train,The Accountant, andJack Reacher: Never Go Backall seem poised for strong grosses, but it seems unlikely that any of this October’s releases will match last year’sThe Martian. However, this month will likely top the same period of last year whenPan,Crimson Peak, andThe Last Witch Hunterflopped.
The Birth of a Nation – October 7 (Fox Searchlight)
The title was stolen on purpose, butThe Birth of a Nationis not a remake of the 1919 classic. Instead, it deals with the story of Nat Turner, who led a slave rebellion in 1831 Virginia. When it premiered at Sundance in January,The Birth of a Nationhad some of the best reception in the history of the festival. It received a standing ovation, won the Audience Award and Grand Jury Prize in the U.S. Dramatic Competition, and was purchased by Fox Searchlight for a record $17.5 million. Until just a few months ago, the film seemed poised for a strong box office run.
There’s the old saying that any press is good press.World War Z, for example, had numerous reports of production problems and budget overruns leading up to its release, but its $540.0 million worldwide gross indicated that audiences were unaffected by the negative press. The heavy controversy behindThe Birth of a Nation(and specifically star/director/producer/writerNate Parker), by contrast, is different, as it appears to be directly affecting general audiences' perception of the film. It’s also become a rarity to come across an article that mentionsThe Birth of a Nationwithout discussion of the controversy, particularly after Parker refused to answer any personal questions during the press conference at the Toronto International Film Festival.
With regard to the film itself, many have drawn comparisons to12 Years a Slave, another major festival hit that graphically depicted the brutalities of slavery. Tough subject matter is almost always a difficult sell at the box office, althoughThe Birth of a Nationmay get a slight boost as the film’s trailers have hinted at an epic battle. While it’s impossible to quantify the exact effect the controversy will have on the film’s grosses, a total close to12 Years a Slave’s$56.6 million may be out of reach. At the very least,The Birth of a Nationshould be getting higher than this past summer’s disappointmentFree State of Jones, which ended its run with $20.8 million.
The Girl on the Train – October 7 (Universal)
Based on the extremely popular novel of the same name,The Girl on the Trainlooks poised to be one of October’s top grossing films. The source material has sold over 15 million copies worldwide since its release, the film features an appealing cast that includesEmily Blunt,Justin Theroux, andRebecca Ferguson, and the trailers have nicely played up the mystery of the story (who killed Megan Hipwell?).
It doesn’t feel like an accident thatThe Girl on the Trainis being released during the same weekend asGone Girltwo years ago.Gone Girlwas also based on a popular adult mystery thriller that unspools through different points of view and featured a talented cast (Ben Affleck,Rosamund Pike). WhenThe Girl on the Train’sbook sales skyrocketed, many journalists deemed it the nextGone Girl. But will it be the nextGone Girlat the box office?
Middle School: Worst Years of My Life – October 7 (Lionsgate)
Middle School: Worst Years of My Lifeis based on the first installment of theJames PattersonMiddle Schoolnovel series, which depicts a new student rallying his classmates to rebel against the faculty after they destroy his notebook. The series became quite popular, with the first book landing the No. 1 spot on the New York Times bestseller list.
The idea of an uprising against an oppressive principal and faculty is appealing, and fans of the book series will likely be interested in this feature adaptation. It also helps that the film is surprisingly the only release in October targeting families. Whether this will be enough for parents to shell out money for admission, however, remains unclear.
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, another adaptation of a popular children’s book, was released in early October two years ago and went on to gross an impressive $66.9 million. That film, however, benefited from a strong supporting cast that includedSteve CarellandJennifer Garner, who undoubtedly helped draw in parents. A gross forMiddle Schoolcloser to that of less successful children’s book adaptations such asBecause of Winn-Dixie($32.6 million) andJames and the Giant Peach($28.9 million) seems more likely.
The Accountant – October 14 (Warner Bros.)
Speaking of Ben Affleck,The Accountantmarks the second time we will be seeing him in a starring role in under a year (the third being December’sLive by Night). The last time this actor starred in an R-rated drama, the result was the aforementionedGone Girl, which grossed an impressive $167.7 million domestically and $369.3 million worldwide. Earlier this year, Affleck took on the role of the caped crusader inBatman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice. While the film itself received a great deal of negative reviews, both audiences and critics agreed that Affleck’s performance was one of the best parts of the film, and the actor still appears to be a hugely popular draw.
As withGone Girl, Affleck has a strong supporting cast that includesAnna Kendrick,J.K. Simmons, andJon Bernthal. UnlikeGone Girl, though,The Accountantappears to lean much more heavily on the action side, with Affleck’s titular accountant laundering money for drug cartels and assassins (and as we see from the trailers, even doing some shooting himself).
Warner Bros. has been heavily marketing the film, and awareness and interest forThe Accountantappears to be quite high. A performance close to that ofGone Girlmay be out of reach, but there’s a strong chance this replacesMiracleas directorGavin O’Connor’shighest grossing film.
Kevin Hart: What Now? – October 14 (Universal)
Since his last stand-up feature in 2013, prolific actorKevin Harthas starred in a whopping six films (not including his supporting appearances), all of which have been successful. AlthoughRide Along 2’ssomewhat disappointing performance relative to its predecessor cast some doubt about Hart’s appeal,Central Intelligence’s$127.4 million gross this summer solidified the actor as still having significant drawing power.
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explaingrossed a strong $32.2 million despite having been released in only 876 theaters, and became the fourth highest grossing stand-up comedy film of all time. While an exact theater count forWhat Now?is not yet available, it seems likely that it will be at least slightly higher, especially considering that it was filmed in front of a massive 53,000-person crowd (compared toLet Me Explain’s30,000).
The film will have some tough competition for African-American audiences fromTyler Perry’sBoo! A Madea Halloweenthe following weekend, and October is not quite as prime a release date asLet Me Explain’sFourth of July bow. Despite these disadvantages,What Now?should still become one of the top grossing stand-up comedy concert films.
For the uninitiated, Max Steel began as an action-figure toy line developed by Mattel, which spawned an animated series of the same name and subsequently nine direct-to-video animated films. A second series currently airs on Disney XD, andMax Steelmarks the first live-action adaptation of the property.
But in the age of superhero franchises that are dominated by Marvel, DC, and the X-Men series,Max Steeldoes not appear different enough from those properties to seem like a new option, nor similar enough to draw in fans of recent films. The film also seems to fall into that ambiguous category of being too childish for adults yet too violent for children, which makes it hard to pin down which audiences the studio is targeting.
Lesser-known superhero characters have found much success in recent years at the box office, includingGuardians of the Galaxy($333.1 million),Ant-Man($180.2 million), andDeadpool($363.0 million).Guardians of the GalaxyandAnt-Man, however, both had the advantage of being new additions to the hugely popular Marvel Cinematic Universe and carried large budgets, andDeadpoolwas a unique and irreverent spin on the genre that was very clearly targeted at adults.
Toy adaptations have in the past found success, butMax Steeldoes not seem to carry the brand recognition of better-known properties such as Transformers or G.I. Joe. Unfortunately,Max Steelseems likely to end up on the lower end of superhero films.
Boo! A Madea Halloween – October 21 (Lionsgate)
Boo! A Madea Halloweenmarks the seventhMadeafilm released since 2005, whenTyler Perryintroduced the now iconic character to moviegoers withTyler Perry’s Diary of a Mad Black Woman. Audiences have responded well to the character with grosses ranging from $50.6 million to $90.5 million in 2009, whenTyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jailsurpassed all expectations.
Although it originated from a fictitiousMadeaHalloween movie from 2014’sTop Five,Boo!seems to align nicely with the series’ brand of humor, and has the prolific Perry returning as the star, producer, writer, and director. The film sees the titular character keeping an eye on her great-niece on Halloween, and in the process fending off clowns, ghosts, and zombies, which judging from the trailers seems to lend itself to quite a few laughs.
Horror comedies are notoriously a tough sell (this summer’sGhostbustersended up with a disappointing gross), but theMadeabrand should be enough to turn it into a hit for Lionsgate.Madea Goes to Jail’sgross may be out of reach, but a run around that of the last Madea film,Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas($52.5 million), seems doable.
I’m Not Ashamed – October 21 (Pure Flix)
Film adaptations of popular novels are quite common, but it’s a bit of a rarity to find a narrative adapted from a real-life diary.I’m Not Ashamedis based on the journals of Rachel Scott, the first victim of the Columbine High School massacre, and her quest to spread compassion, kindness, and faith.
Though the story feels incredibly important and one worthy of telling, a film based on the real-life diary of the first victim of the Columbine massacre feels like very, very heavy material that mainstream audiences tend to stay away from. The critically acclaimedWe Need to Talk About Kevin, for example, only grossed $1.7 million, andElephant, also based on the Columbine massacre, ended its run with $1.2 million.
I’m Not Ashamedshould, however, gross more than the aforementioned titles, particularly with a boost from Christian audiences. Look for this to end up around distributor Pure Flix’sWoodlawn($14.5 million), released around the same time last year.
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back – October 21 (Paramount)
On one of the most crowded weekends in recent memory featuring five wide releases,Jack Reacher: Never Go Backmay be one of the bigger toss-ups. On the one hand, it’s an action film starringTom Cruise, who when paired with the right material remains a major draw (his last film,Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, grossed $682.2 million worldwide. On the other hand,Jack Reachergrossed a decent but not great $80.0 million, which initially caused doubt over the possibility of future installments, had somewhat average reception (a 7.0 IMDB user rating and a 62% Rotten Tomatoes score), and its sequel is arriving four years later, which is relatively late for a not yet established franchise.
As evidenced by the aggressive marketing campaign that has included numerous commercials during NFL games, distributor Paramount has high hopes for the sequel. The trailers for the film have displayed much of the same grounded action seen in the first film, including Tom Cruise punching many, many people (which was hilariously parodied in the online gameJack Reacher: Never Stop Punching).
Though Cruise’s casting caused initial backlash from fans of the book series, his performance was praised inJack Reacherand since then it appears he is more widely accepted as the titular character. The source material is also extremely well regarded and is considered one of the best in the series. Although an over-performance byThe Accountantmay distract action audiences away fromNever Go Back, this should at least get close to its predecessor.
Keeping Up With the Joneses – October 21 (Fox)
Although this month is not without its fair share of comedies,Keeping Up With the Jonesesseems to stand a good chance of breaking out. It features a hugely appealing cast that includesZach Galifanakis,Gal Gadot,Isla Fisher, andJon Hamm, a strong premise, and a very funny trailer.
Galifanakis suffered a flop at the end of last month withMasterminds, which was his first starring role in a comedy sinceThe Hangover Part III.Masterminds, however, was plagued by bad reviews and awful trailers. Given directorGreg Mottola’strack record, which includesSuperbadandAdventureland, it stands to reason thatKeeping Up With the Jonesesmay end up being quite good.
Keeping Up With the Jonesesfeels in some ways reminiscent ofKillers, which also featured a secret agent in hiding. Though it was critically panned,Killersended up with a decent domestic gross of $47.0 million, which seems like a good target forKeeping Up With the Joneses.
