This stretch of the blockbuster movie season has been referred to by some insiders as “the summer ofSuperman,” as the anticipation forJames Gunn’s new DC Studios film has reached its apex. Beyond the excitement that comes with the reintroduction of one of the most famous superheroes of all time, there is significant pressure uponSupermanto perform well, as it could signify a strength in the theatrical market.
While this year has seen significant successes in the form ofA Minecraft MovieandLilo & Stitch, the general decline in the box office post-COVID has made it of critical importance to find crowdplasers that can kickstart a cultural conversation, similar to the phenomenon ofBarbieandOppenheimertwo years ago. It’s understandable why pundits are so eager to determine whetherWarner Bros.’ faith in Gunn will pay off,butSuperman’s box office performance cannot be determined purely by tracking.
Early tracking forSupermanhad ranged widely based on the publication, asThe Hollywood Reporteranticipatedan opening weekend of $135 million, whereasDeadlinepredicted aperformance between $90 and $125 million. Whether either would be a success in the studio’s eyes is also up for debate, aswhile a $225 million budgethas been suggested, the dominance of Warner Bros.’ marketing campaign suggests a significant advertising cost. Nonetheless,box office tracking has proven to be inconsistent,andSupermanwill have to prove itself durable beyond its opening weekend.
Box Office Tracking Isn’t Easy To Predict
The post-COVID era has madebox office tracking more inconsistent, as it has become harder to gauge the interests of moviegoers using traditional tracking measures.A Minecraft Movieproved to consistently overperform in comparison to the projections, andSinnersended up having an extraordinary hold between weekends, despite some trade reports thatattempted to downplay its success.While tracking does take into account early ticketing sales, online buzz does not always translate into financial success. Despite havingone of the highest performing trailers of all-time,Transformers: Rise of the Beastsproved to be a box-office disappointment; on the flipside, word-of-mouth hits likeSound of Freedom, andIt Ends With Usoverperformed when compared to tracking estimates, as more targeted advertising campaigns made it more difficult to determine the marketing reach.
Supermanis facing a significant amount of competitionthat will certainly factor into its overall performance. WithJurassic World: Rebirthopening a week prior andThe Fantastic Four: First Stepsopening two weeks later, it’s possible that a financial overperformance from either film could cut intoSuperman’s financial legs. It’s entirely possible that multiple films released in the same timespan could be successful, but this isn’t a case similar toMission: Impossible — The Final ReckoningandLilo & Stitch, which targeted two different demographics. All three major July blockbusters are aimed at the same audience, forcing less frequent cinemagoers to make a preferred choice.Tracking is also an imprecise scienceand doesn’t take into account enthusiasm. Warner Bros. certainly learned this lesson based on the performance ofJoker: Folie à Deux, which steadily fell in estimates based on bad word-of-mouth, and then still managed to underperform.
IMAX is also an important factor withinSuperman’s performance,as it’s been more difficult to account for the impact that premium formats have had on financial expectations, particularly in the post-COVID era. Films likeDune: Part TwoandAvatar: The Way of Waterwere able to maximize their potential impactbecause the marketing campaigns effectively communicated the notion that they needed to be seen in theaters to be enjoyed.Superman’s marketing has made similar attempts, but it remains to be seen if the filmmaker-focused campaign for Gunn will be as successful as it was forDenis VilleneuveandJames Cameron. Another unfortunate consequence of the post-COVID era is the “wait for streaming” mindset, as some audiences will simply avoid theaters altogether and wait for the film’s digital release.
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“I’d be very happy with a double.”
The Opening Weekend Is Only Part of the Story
While the success of an opening weekend can end up dominating the journalism that surrounds major releases,it is more important for massive blockbusters to have a solid hold between weekends, as it’s often that the audience significantly declines after “die-hard” fans show up.Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justiceearned a hefty $166 million during its opening weekend in 2016, but suffered a steep 58% drop-off in its second weekend and a disappointing “B” CinemaScore. A CinemaScore does not always factor into a film’s performance, asThunderbolts*was still considered to be a disappointment, despite earning an A.
Thunderbolts*may have alsosuffered from “superhero fatigue,”as audiences may have been dissuaded from going based on the critical underperformance of several recent installments in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.The damage to the DC brand cannot be underestimated, as the disastrous performance ofShazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, Blue Beetle, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, and the aforementionedJokersequel indicated that the franchise was not “critic-proof.” While those who follow the development of these films closely are aware of Gunn’s track record and the new template he has set for the universe, an average audience member needs to be convinced that they’re seeing something new and different. This also speaks to the unique pressure thatSupermanis under, as it must perform well enough to inspire interest in the subsequent DCU films that Gunn has planned, including next year’sSupergirl.
Regardless of how accurate the tracking is,an opening weekend forSupermandoesn’t tell the whole story, as the international performance could be wildly different. There are films likeTwistersthat were perceived as domestic successes, yet underperformed overseas, as well as domestic flops that went on to find worldwide dominance, such asWarcraft. It’s often that box office narratives can spread quickly with little dissension, especially when trades likeThe Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, Indiewire,andRolling Stoneareowned by the same parent company of Penske Media. The “wait and see” approach may be frustrating for theater owners and tracking pundits, but in the case ofSupermanand most other blockbusters, it’s a reminder that cinematic success is an art, and not a science.
