And so the time is here. Nominations for the 89th annual Academy Awards will be announced bright and early tomorrow morning, and while I’ve been covering this year’s awards race since September, we’ve come to the moment of truth. Below, I’ve offered my predictions for the nominees in (almost) all of the categories. There are a number of different ways to tackle this—statistics, precedent, etc., but it’ll mostly come down to blind luck. I’ve used every piece of information I can glean to predict what I think will land on the Academy’s shortlist, but as always there will not doubt be a curveball or two. Keeps things interesting!
Check out my predictions below and check back tomorrow for a commentary piece on the nominees. The 89th Oscars will be held on February 26th and broadcast live on ABC, hosted byJimmy Kimmel.
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
Wild Cards:Deepwater Horizon,Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,The BFG
This category’s nominees can often come down to the quality of the highlight reels that were shown at the VFX bake-off, where the shortlisted contenders make their case for a nomination.The Jungle Book’s stunning effects are in, and I thinkRogue One’s mix of practical and visual effects make it a strong contender as well. Where I’m venturing a bit from the fray here isKubo and the Two Strings, which combined stop-motion animation and visual effects seamlessly to create a wondrous viewing experience. If I’m wrong, look for the deceptively effects-heavyDeepwater Horizonor maybeFantastic Beaststo make the cut instead.
Best Film Editing
La La Land– Tom Cross
Moonlight– Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
Manchester by the Sea– Jennifer Lame
Hacksaw Ridge– John Gilbert
Arrival– Joe Walker
Wild Cards:Lion(Alexandre de Franceschi),Hell or High Water(Jake Roberts),Nocturnal Animals(Joan Sobel)
Best Editing has a way of matching up with the biggest Best Picture contenders, so this year’s formidable trio—La La Land,Moonlight, andManchester by the Sea—are probably in. Beyond that, the editors’ branch loves to recognize action editing that has purpose and is emotionally driven, andHacksaw Ridgecertainly fits that bill. And withArrival’s effectiveness hinging on the use of flashbacks to create an emotional response, I think the sci-fi pic will be duly recognized here as well. Although last yearStar Wars: The Force Awakenssecured a nod, so perhapsRogue Onelands a nomination here. We’ll surely find out.
Best Original Score
La La Land– Justin Hurwitz
Lion– Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
Moonlight– Nicholas Britell
The BFG– John Williams
Jackie– Mica Levi
Wild Cards:Nocturnal Animals(Abel Korzeniowski),Hidden Figures(Pharrell and Benjmain Walfisch),Kubo and the Two Strings(Dario Marianelli)
John Williamsis nominated almost every time he composes a new original score (see:The Book Thief,Memoirs of a Geisha,Angela’s Ashes), so if you think just becauseThe BFGbombed that he’s not in, think again. This branchlovesThe Master. But beyond that, we’ve got really strong contenders inLa La Land,Moonlight, andLion, whileJackieremains a somewhat controversial pick.Mica Levi’s tremendous work onUnder the Skinfailed to land a nomination, and while some think the same will happen here, I’m hoping (foolishly, probably) that she gets her due recognition. If not,Nocturnal Animals,Hidden Figures, andKubo and the Two Stringsare all serious possibilities.
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” –La La Land
“City of Stars” –La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go” –Moana
“Runnin” –Hidden Figures
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” –Trolls
Wild Cards:“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street), “Faith” (Sing), “We Know the Way” (Moana)
AsI’ve written before, this is one of the most exciting categories of the year. BothLa La Landsongs will get in, but it’s a genuinely tough race withMoanaandHidden Figuresin there. And while I’m not predicting it, ifSing Streetlands a nomination I will be absolutely thrilled.
Best Cinematography
Linus Sandgren –La La Land
Bradford Young –Arrival
Greig Fraser –Lion
James Laxton –Moonlight
Rodrigo Prieto –Silence
Wild Cards:Seamus McGarvey (Nocturnal Animals), Robert Richardson (Live by Night), Stephane Fontaine (Jackie)
What an embarrassment of riches.La La Landis the frontrunner here, and deservedly so, andBradford Younglooks to be the category’s first-ever African-American nominee for his stellar work onArrival. And bolstered by ASC nominations, I thinkGreig FraserandRodrigo Prietodeservedly get in. If you’re looking for a spoiler I think itmightbeSeamus McGarveyfor his sharply composed work onNocturnal Animals, and whileJackiewas at one time a shoo-in for a lot of nominations, the film has cooled significantly over the last month.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Moonlight– Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
Arrival– Eric Heisserer
Lion– Luke Davies
Nocturnal Animals– Tom Ford
Fences– August Wilson
Wild Cards:Hidden Figures(Theodore Melfi, Alison Schroeder),Silence(Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese),Deadpool(Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick)
This is one of the year’s more competitive categories, but we can probably count onMoonlightandArrivalat least for landing nominations.Lionis also a solid bet given its feel-good nature, but I’m also predicting more love in the Academy forNocturnal Animals, so I think it has a shot—especially with that WGA nod in its pocket. It’s hard to see themnotnominating the lateAugust Wilsonfor his impeccableFences, but I also think we could see a genuine wild card thrown into the mix in the form ofDeadpool. The question is, could voters really find it in themselves to nominateDeadpoolover something as deep and refined asSilenceorMoonlight? We’ll find out, but I actually think this is the category whereDeadpoolhas the best shot of being nominated.
Best Original Screenplay
La La Land– Damien Chazelle
Manchester by the Sea– Kenneth Lonergan
Hell or High Water– Taylor Sheridan
The Lobster– Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos
Zootopia- Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnson, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon, Josie Trinidad
Wild Cards:Captain Fantastic(Matt Ross),20th Century Women(Mike Mills),Toni Erdmann(Maren Ade)
This one’s a bit tough.Captain Fantasticcould certainly land a nod if it has enough support, but Disney/Pixar also has a solid track record in the category. The writers branch is usually where you’ll find support for small critical darlings, so I thinkThe Lobstergets in andHell or High Wateris a strong contender, even for a win. I’d feel more confident about20th Century Women’s chances if the film had found more guild support, but it was snubbed by WGA which doesn’t inspire confidence. I would’ve saidLovinghad a shot here, but for dumb reasons the Academy decided it qualified for Adapted instead of Original, which is a much tougher category.
Best Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
Cameraperson
I Am Not Your Negro
Wild Cards:The Eagle Huntress,Fire at Sea,Life, Animated
This category has a tendency to get it wrong, so don’t be surprised if there’s a shocking omission of something like13thorWeiner.
Best Animated Feature
The Red Turtle
My Life as a Zucchini
Disney and LAIKA look to dominate this category, butFinding Dorydoesn’t seem as robust a contender as these others. The animation branch is fond of throwing one or two foreign films into this category, so despite their commercial successes, I wouldn’t count on films likeSingorTrollsgetting in. And no,Sausage Partyis unlikely to nab a nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali –Moonlight
Jeff Bridges –Hell or High Water
Dev Patel –Lion
Lucas Hedges –Manchester by the Sea
Aaron Taylor-Johnson –Nocturnal Animals
Wild Cards:Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
That shocking Golden Globes win forAaron Taylor-Johnsonisn’t what clinched him as a Best Supporting Actor nominee for me, it was the BAFTA recognition. Although, yes, a Golden Globe win almost guarantees an Oscar nomination statistics-wise. But yeah, I’m thinkingNocturnal Animals—a film shunned by critics groups—will find greater support within the Academy, which will extend to this particular acting category. As for the rest, they’ve been the main players for some time now, but I could also see a bit of a shakeup withKevin Costnerthrown into the mix.
