At long last, it’s time to predict the Oscar nominations. Well not exactly atlonglast. In truth, this Oscar season has been one of the shortest in history. The Golden Globes were last Sunday, and yet the Oscars ceremony takes place in less than a month. That shortened window has added a sense of urgency to the mix as contenders vie for the spotlight on an abbreviated timeline.
Perhaps that’s why we haven’t seen too much in the way of negative campaigning or shocking falls from major contenders. There simply isn’t time, and everyone’s focused on making the best case for their individual film and performances. Which has made for an interesting race in a number of categories.
Below I offer my Oscar nominations predictions in quite a few categories, but not all. This year, unfortunately, I haven’t been able to devote the time necessary to confidently assess, say, Best Sound Editing, so I’ve left a few of those off. Regardless, I’ve included my assessment of the major categories in addition to predictions below. And check back on Monday for my analysis of the actual Oscar nominations.
Of note: The predicted nominees in each category are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Best Picture
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Knives Out
Ford v Ferrari
Major Threats:The Two Popes,Bombshell,The Farewell
Iwrote pretty extensivelyabout my Best Picture predictions earlier this week, but I’m confident the first 7 of these films are pretty much a lock to get nominated. While past years have given us 9 nominees, some think the shortened schedule means fewer films were actually watched, which could result in only 7 or 8 nominees.
Beyond the “locks,” I’m hopeful thatLittle Womengets in. Despite a rough start getting nearly shut out by SAG and the Globes, the film earned a PGA nomination and has been gaining momentum. I’m also fairly confidentKnives Outhas a very good shot at a nomination. It earned a PGA nomination and has been recognized by various guilds along the way. Good forRian Johnson. And finally there’sFord v Ferrari, a true crowdpleaser and classically made film for adults. It’s got a decent shot with a PGA nod in hand.
If it’s not any of those, Netflix’sThe Two Popescould mount a comeback (though its lack of PGA nomination has me dubious),Bombshellcould make good on those SAG nominations, andThe Farewellcould sneak in as this year’s beloved indie.
Best Director
Quentin Tarantino –Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese –The Irishman
Sam Mendes –1917
Bong Joon-ho –Parasite
Greta Gerwig –Little Women
Major Threats:Todd Phillips (Joker), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Boy this is a tough category this year. The first four nominees seem like near-locks, so it’s that fifth slot whereGreta Gerwig,Todd Philips,Noah Baumbach, andTaika Waititiare duking it out—or possibly even someone likeFernando MeirellesorPedro Almodovar. The Director’s branch of the Academy often likes to recognize an outside-the-box choice here likeBenh ZeitlinforBeasts of the Southern Wildor last year withPawel PawlikowskiforCold War.
So what does all of this mean? Boy, I don’t know. I’m going with my optimistic gut here and saying the branch will do the right thing and recognize Gerwig for her tremendous filmmaking feat that isLittle Women, but I could just as easily see Phillips, Baumbach, or even Waititi making it. Waititi took the fifth slot with the DGA Awards, but the DGA nominees rarely match up five for five. So yeah. Gerwig. Final answer. I think…
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix –Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio –Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver –Marriage Story
Taron Egerton –Rocketman
Antonio Banderas –Pain & Glory
Major Threats:George MacKay (1917), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
Another super tough category, and one in which the first three nominees are pretty safe (this isJoaquin Phoenix’s to lose).Taron Egerton’s SAG nomination and Golden Globes win convinced me he’s getting a nomination here, in addition to the fact that he’s been campaigninghard. AndAntonio Banderas’ soulful performance inPain & Gloryfeels like a sneaky contender here, especially sinceRobert De Nirohas been left out in the cold by most precursor awards.
The two spoilers here, in my mind, areGeorge MacKayfor1917andAdam SandlerforUncut Gems.1917is proving to be a successful latecomer, and Best Picture winners usually get at least one acting nomination. If1917hits big with the Academy, look for MacKay to get in. As for Sandler, I can’t suss out whether he’s a critical favorite or actually has a shot with the Oscars. He’s got a lot of baggage, but he’s also a likable guy. It’s a toss up.
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger –Judy
Scarlett Johansson –Marriage Story
Charlize Theron –Bombshell
Lupita Nyong’o –Us
Saoirse Ronan –Little Women
Major Threats:Awkwafina (The Farewell), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
So this isRenee Zellweger’s to lose. Thanks for playing everyone.
Filling out the category,Scarlett JohanssonandCharlize Theronfeel pretty safe, and if the Academy can’t find it in themselves to acknowledge any of the great performances from women of color this year in this category, God help them.Lupita Nyong’ohas been a critical favorite,Awkwafinaa bit of an underdog who got a boost at the Globes,Cynthia Erivois getting strong notices forHarriet, and if voters actually take the time to watchClemencyit’s highly possibleAlfre Woodardgets in. But because I pickedLittle Womento earn Best Picture and Director nods, I’m going withSaoirse Ronanfor that fifth slot.
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt –Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci –The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins –The Two Popes
Sam Rockwell –Richard Jewell
Alan Alda –Marriage Story
Major Threats:Al Pacino (The Irishman), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)
This is a category in which I’m going out on a limb, but the Supporting categories are usually where you find the most surprises.Brad Pittis the frontrunner to win, so he’s safe, andJoe Pescihas a terrific comeback narrative around him that I think will pay off. But the Academy tends to nominateSam Rockwellat every chance they get, so I’m predicting a surprise there, andAlan Aldais delightfully sincere in awards season favoriteMarriage Storythat I think might push him in.
As for why I don’t haveTom Hankspredicted, well, the Oscars hate Tom Hanks. I don’t know why, but the guy hasn’t been nominated sinceCast Away, and that was two decades ago. If they’re not going to nominate him forCaptain Phillips, I don’t necessarily foresee him getting in forA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. But I’d love to be wrong. And with regards toAl Pacino, I think hedeservesto get in, but I’m predicting a couple of surprises here.
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern –Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez –Hustlers
Scarlett Johansson –Jojo Rabbit
Margot Robbie –Bombshell
Florence Pugh –Little Women
Major Threats:Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell), Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell)
Again hereLaura Dernis the heavy favorite to win, so she’s safe. But really any mix of my predictions and the Major Threats seems possible. If the Academy doesn’t spring forLittle Women, I could seeFlorence Pughnot making the cut in favor of someone likeShuzhen ZhaofromThe Farewell.
Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood– Quentin Tarantino
Marriage Story– Noah Baumbach
Parasite– Bong Joon-ho
Knives Out– Rian Johnson
1917– Krysty Wilson-Cairns and Sam Mendes
Major Threats:The Farewell,Booksmart,Pain & Glory
Another competitive category.Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,Marriage Story, andParasiteare all heavy favorites, so it’d be a shock if they don’t get in. I’m predicting1917to be a big Academy favorite, so I think it scores here as well. AndKnives Outhas a ton of support behind it, so look for that one to play a spoiler.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman– Steve Zaillian
Joker– Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
Jojo Rabbit– Taika Waititi
Little Women– Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes– Anthony McCarten
Major Threats:A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,Hustlers
This one’s an odd category this year in that it’s not super stacked with contenders, but I feel fairly confident in all of these except forThe Two Popes. That film missed out on a WGA nod in favor ofA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, so watch for that potential swap.
Best International Film
Pain and Glory
