The 2021 Oscar nominations are upon us, even if the Oscars themselves are still a couple of months away. It is, in fact, the weirdest Oscars in my ten years of covering them professionally, and it’s a bit ironic that during a year in which almost all the presumed Best Picture nominees are streaming, it feels like interest from the general public is the lowest it’s been in decades. That’s not a reflection of the quality of the films – there are some genuinely fantastic movies, performances, and crafts up for the Oscars this year – but maybe more a reflection of how, without a big splashy theatrical release, it’s much harder for a film to tap into the zeitgeist.
That also seriously handicaps Oscar prognosticating this year, as nothing was normal. There was no big festival season in which a frontrunner emerged. There was no box office bump for a populist film. There was no late-coming surprise. We’re flying blind here, so to that end I have done my best with the following Oscar nominations predictions, but I would not be surprised to see some, well, surprises.
To that end I say bring ‘em on. If this is gonna be a weird Oscar year, make itreallyweird. For now, though, here’s how I see the major Oscar nominees shaping up when they’re announced on Monday morning, with each player ranked in order of likelihood to be nominated.
Best Picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami…
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Major Threats:Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,The Father,Da 5 Bloods,News of the World
The bulk of the Best Picture lineup has been fairly set for the last couple of months now. There are five mainstays who feel like a lock to land nominations at this point:Nomadland,The Trial of the Chicago 7,Minari,Mank, andPromising Young Woman. All earned PGA nominations, which is a frequent bellwether for Best Picture nominees, and all have fared incredibly well with critics groups and precursor awards alike. So count on those appearing, barring any major shockers.
RELATED:2020 Producers Guild Award Nominations Could Be a Glimpse at Our Best Picture Field
Outside that lineup, Netflix’sMa Rainey’s Black Bottomfeels pretty safe to get in – especially after earning a PGA nomination – and ditto to Amazon’sOne Night in Miami…andSound of Metal, as well as Warner Bros.’Judas and the Black Messiah. The latter is the latest entry in the Oscar race and if anything misses the cut I think it’s this Fred Hampton film, which earned positive yetslightlymixed reviews. On the outside looking in, there’s a chanceBorat Subsequent Moviefilmearns a nod as it got a PGA nomination, and in terms of longer shots non-PGA-nominatedThe Father,Da 5 Bloods, andNews of the Worldare possibilities. But if you ask me, the lineup above is pretty set.
Best Director
Chloe Zhao –Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin –The Trial of the Chicago 7
David Fincher –Mank
Emerald Fennell –Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung –Minari
Major Threats:Regina King (One Night in Miami…), Paul Greengrass (News of the World), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
This year’s Best Director lineup isalmost certain to make history, it’s merely a question of by how wide a margin. Never before have two women been nominated for the Best Director Oscar, but that feels almost guaranteed to happen this year.Chloe Zhaois a lock for a nomination for her Best Picture frontrunnerNomadland, whileEmerald FennellandRegina Kinghave been picking up recognition left and right forPromising Young WomanandOne Night in Miami…respectively.PYWis the “showier” of the two directing-wise, but King is a beloved figure in the industry and her restrained approach toOne Night in Miami…is equally brilliant. If all three get in, then it feels likely thatAaron SorkinorDavid Finchergets knocked out, although somewhat surprisingly Sorkin feels like the safer bet to stay in here.
The DGA nominees were Zhao, Fennell, Sorkin, Fincher, andMinari’sLee Isaac Chung. I’m going with that exact lineup for Oscars, but I feel like any of the men could be swapped out for King, or potentially Fennell althoughPYWhas been performing really strongly. Again, history is likely to be made either way, so this is an exciting category.
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan –Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand –Nomadland
Viola Davis –Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby –Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day –The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Major Threats:Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), Yeri Han (Minari)
This year’s Best Actress race has been pretty set for some time now, and the extremely safe bets areFrances McDormand,Carey Mulligan, andViola Davis. McDormand and Davis are Oscar winners already, but Mulligan has pulled ahead in terms of who’s likeliest to take this thing home right now (although there’s still a ways to go). ButVanessa Kirby’s rave reviews should also vault her into position for Netflix’sPieces of a Woman, whileAndra Day– who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress – is likely to score her first nod forThe United States vs. Billie Holliday. I can’t really foresee any major shakeups here, although it would be nice to seeYeri Hanget recognized.
RELATED:Amanda Seyfried Takes Us From Lessons Learned on ‘Mean Girls’ to Making ‘Mank’ With David Fincher
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman –Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins –The Father
Steven Yeun –Minari
Riz Ahmed –Sound of Metal
Gary Oldman –Mank
Major Threats:Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Boy what a stacked category.Chadwick Bosemanis far and away the favorite to win this year, so the rest are playing for a consolation prize.Anthony Hopkins,Steven Yeun, andRiz Ahmedare pretty safe, but I honestly would not be shocked ifGary Oldmanwas left out of the race here.Mankwas largely ignored by the Screen Actors Guild save for Oldman, and it feels like a movie that will perform better with branches outside the Actors one. Still, I’m counting on Oldman getting in, but if he doesn’t there’s a prime opportunity for a surprise fromThe Mauritanian’sTahar RahimorDelroy Lindo, a critics favorite who seems to have fallen just outside the likeliest nominations circle as awards groups have cooled onDa 5 Bloodsas a whole.
Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman –The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn –Minari
Maria Bakalova –Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dominique Fishback –Judas and the Black Messiah
Jodie Foster –The Mauritanian
Major Threats:Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
This category could bewild. Anything could happen all the way up through Oscar night.Olivia Colman,Yuh-Jung Youn, andMaria Bakalovafeel pretty safe to me, but I’m predictingAmanda Seyfriedto fall just outside (despite an excellent performance) in favor of the currently more buzzworthyDominique FishbackandJodie Foster. But who knows, maybeGlenn Closewill score a nomination after all? Maybe the youngHelena Zengelbreaks into the pack?
RELATED:Maria Bakalova on ‘Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’, Sacha Baron Cohen’s Mentorship, and Much More
Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya –Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen –The Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Raci –Sound of Metal
Leslie Odom Jr. –One Night in Miami…
Chadwick Boseman –Da 5 Bloods
Major Threats:Jared Leto (The Little Things), Alan Kim (Minari), Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
There are two scenarios for this category: one in whichJared Letogets nominated for a kind-of-bad performance in Warner Bros.’The Little Things, and one in which he does not. I’m predicting the latter, but understand it could very well be the former. At any rate,Daniel Kauuyafeels the safest here for his excellent turn as Fred Hampton inJudas and the Black Messiah, whileSacha Baron Cohenis also a pretty easy bet for playing Abbie Hoffman inChicago 7. Then there’s the very deservingPaul RacifromSound of Metal, who I think gets in, as well asLeslie Odom Jr.who feels like the best bet for an acting nom forOne Night in Miami…— although it’s possibleAldis Hodgegets nominated here instead. The big question mark is whether the Academy will bestow Boseman with two nominations or one, and hisDa 5 Bloodsnom is far from assured. The youngAlan Kimis a possibility forMinari, and yes, so is Leto. As with Supporting Actress, this category is pretty unpredictable this year.
Best Original Screenplay
Major Threats:Palm Springs,Soul,Judas and the Black Messiah
The frontrunners here appear to beChicago 7andPromising Young Woman, butJack Fincher’s script forMankhas also been a bit of a mainstay in this category,Minariis well-loved (and deserving), andSound of Metalpicked up a WGA nomination so that’s what’s guiding my thinking right now. Pixar in the past has broken into this category, but the controversy surroundingSoulappears to have drowned out the enthusiasm for that film to score a nomination in the major categories.Judas and the Black MessiahandPalm Springspicked up WGA noms so they could sneak in, and I would be especially delighted to see the latter earn a nomination. If there’s a surprise here, I thinkPalm Springsis it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Major Threats:News of the World,The White Tiger,The Mauritanian
As the Best Picture frontrunnerNomadlandis the favorite here, and the rest of the category seems to be filling out rather expectedly. Remember the firstBoratearned a Best Original Screenplay nomination, so a nod for the sequel is actually fairly expected – although I could see WGA nomineeThe White Tigersurprising with a nod here instead ofThe Father.
KEEP READING:Every Best Actor Winner of the 21st Century Ranked From Worst to Best
