The most important event of 2017 is almost nigh, which means it’s time for final Oscar predictions! In all seriousness, given everything that’s going on right now it seems silly to watch Hollywood celebrate itself in a grand ceremony. But the Oscars have never really been thatimportant. They’re fun! And while who wins and who loses doesn’t necessarily mean anything (The Social NetworkandInceptionlost Best Picture toThe King’s Speech, but who’s still talking aboutThe King’s Speechtoday?), the Oscars do have the ability to highlight films and performances worth seeking out that audiences may have missed the first time around. This year, indies likeMoonlightandHell or High Waterhad their profiles raised tremendously, leading folks who maybe wouldn’t necessarily feel inclined to see them to seek them out. And cinematographers likeBradford YoungandGreig Fraserget pushed into the limelight for phenomenal work. That’s a good thing!
But in the end the Oscars are a contest, and as I’ve been covering this year’s race for what feels like an eternity, it’s nice to finally be able to come down on who I think will win. There have been plenty of ups and downs over the past few months, but as opposed to years where there was a clear X vs. Y contest (Birdmanvs.Boyhood;12 Years a Slavevs.Gravity), this year a trifecta emerged withLa La Land,Moonlight, andManchester by the Sealeading the pack. Of course, it turned out not to be that big of a contest as theLa La Landtrain has been rolling since September and thus far, nothing’s knocked it off its perch. But there are some tight races to be found elsewhere, so below I run down my picks for who’s going to win every category while also offering up who could win, should win, and should have been nominated.
Now I’m not merely guessing here—this is based on a mix of statistics, precedent, and gut-instinct. You’d actually probably do fine if you pickedLa La Landto win every category in which it’s nominated, but that’s no fun. So while stats can get you so far, ultimately some categories just come down to a feeling. Without further ado, I present to you my 2017 Oscar predictions.
Best Picture
This race hasn’t been tight for some time now, and any inkling that maybeMoonlightcould pull off the upset was dashed when the film lost the SAG Best Ensemble award toHidden Figures. Now that NASA true story certainly picked up more votes with the SAG win, but I don’t think it has the momentum needed to carry it to a Best Picture win. UltimatelyLa La Landtied for the most Oscar nominations for a single filmever, which means there is broad support for this movie in almost every single branch of the Academy. It’s a film that celebrates dreamers and Hollywood itself—which as we’ve seen with wins forThe Artist,Birdman, andArgorecently is a plus—and ultimately it’s uplifting and fun, which counters the dour national mood of the moment. For all of these reasons and more, I will be absolutely shocked ifLa La Landdoesn’t win this award.
Will Win:La La Land
Could Win:Hidden Figures(but probably not)
Should Win:La La Land
Should Have Been Nominated:Silence
Best Director
Ditto to everything I said aboutLa La Landfor its Best Picture win. Plus the fact thatDamien Chazellewon the DGA Award for Best Director—only once since 2002 has the winner of the DGAnotwon the Best Director Oscar. Moreover, nine of the last 10 DGA-winning films went on to win Best Picture. Chazelle is poised to make history as the youngest recipient of the Best Director Oscar in history, but for good reason.La La Landis a miraculous tightrope walk between this love letter to Hollywood musicals and the crushing reality of life, and Chazelle navigates that tone expertly. It’s a shameMartin Scorsesedidn’t crack the category (and more of a shame thatSilencewas shunned elsewhere), but this is a formidable bunch—Barry JenkinsandKenneth Lonerganare just as deserving as Chazelle, if not moreso.La La Landhas the momentum though, and that should carry Chazelle to the stage.
Will Win:Damien Chazelle
Could Win:Barry Jenkins
Should Win:Barry Jenkins
Should Have Been Nominated:Martin Scorsese –Silence
Best Actress
IfAmy Adamshad landed a nomination here it might be a trickier category, butEmma Stonehas had the momentum for a long while now andJackielost a lot of luster upon release. So unless ahugeamount of voters putMeryl Streepon top due to her Golden Globes speech, or there’s a groundswell of support forIsabelleHuppert,Stone should walk away with this one easily.
Will Win:Emma Stone
Could Win:Isabelle Huppert
Should Win:Emma Stone
Should Have Been Nominated:Amy Adams –Arrival
Best Actor
This is one of the closest races of the night. It’s down toCasey AffleckandDenzel Washington, and while Affleck had the momentum throughout December and January, Washington’s surprise win at the SAG Awards threw everyone for a loop. You have to go back to 2003 to find an instance where the winner of the SAG Best Actor didn’t also go on to win the Best Actor Oscar, and given Washington’s stature and, you know, the fact that he turns in a phenomenal performance inFences, I’m giving him the edge.
Will Win:Denzel Washington
Could Win:Casey Affleck
Should Win:Casey Affleck
Should Have Been Nominated:Andrew Garfield –Silence
Best Supporting Actress
This is the easiest prediction of the night.Viola Davishas won nearly every single Best Supporting Actress award under the sun, and while we can argue whether she should’ve been in Best Actress or not, the bottom line is one of our finest performers is finally getting that Oscar.
Will Win:Viola Davis
Could Win:Ha, please.
Should Win:Viola Davis
Should Have Been Nominated:Greta Gerwig –20th Century Women
Best Supporting Actor
This is where we could see something of a surprise. Similar to Davis,Mahershala Alihas won quite a few Best Supporting Actor trophies for his terrific turn inMoonlight, but surprises tend to happen in the supporting categories, andDev Patel’s win at the BAFTAs could signal an upset. It’s clear the Academy lovedLiona lot more than critics did, so this could be where theLioncontingent coalesces into a win for that film. Or Ali may continue his deserving run, as his genuinely passionate SAG speech is no doubt stuck in the minds of quite a few voters.
Will Win:Mahershala Ali
Could Win:Dev Patel
Should Win:Mahershala Ali
Should Have Been Nominated:John Goodman –10 Cloverfield Lane
Best Original Screenplay
Here’s where the “La La Landslide” mentality comes into play.La La Land’s script is solid, and while the screenplays for films likeManchester by the SeaandHell or High Waterare possibly more deserving, if I’m predictingLa La Landto win Best Picture and Best Director, the thinking goes that anyone voting for the film in those categories may also consider its screenplay as tops. For the Best Picture winner not to win a screenplay award would be a surprise, and as much as I’d like to think that voters might go for something else, wins likeBirdmanoverThe Grand Budapest HotelandNightcrawler, orThe King’s SpeechoverInception, are still fresh in my mind. Of course it’s also possible I’m wrong as I’m picking kind of an upset here, and I’ll no doubt regret this choice as soon as I hit “post”, but this is what I’ve got right now.
Could Win:Manchester by the Sea
Should Win:Manchester by the Sea
Should Have Been Nominated:The Nice Guys
Best Adapted Screenplay
This one shouldhopefullybe a very deserving win forMoonlight. The film was shifted to Best Adapted Screenplay due to a technicality, but that likely works in its favor as it’s not directly up againstLa La LandandManchester. TheLioncontingent could come out strong, orArrivalcould pull off an upset, but I’m thinking this is the category where voters can safely showMoonlightsome love without usurping their preference forLa La LandorManchester by the Sea.
Will Win:Moonlight
Could Win:Lion
Should Win:Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated:Indignation
Best Animated Feature Film
Disney has the two frontrunners in this category, butZootopia’s billion-dollar box office and critical raves should launch it into the winner’s circle. IfKubo and the Two Stringspulls off an upset, though, I won’t be mad.
Will Win:Zootopia
Could Win:Moana
Should Win:Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Film
The epic German comedyToni Erdmannhas been the frontrunner here for quite some time, especially sinceThe Handmaidenwasn’t submitted, but there’s now the possibility thatAsghar Farhadi’sThe Salesmanwins in a sort of protest vote. The Iranian filmmaker has made clear that he won’t be attending the ceremony in protest of Donald Trump’s Muslim ban, and it’s possible Academy voters might feel compelled to make a statement here by giving Farhadi’s absence the spotlight. Of course it’s still entirely possible thatToni Erdmannstill takes it, but I’m going with an upset here.
Will Win:The Salesman
Could Win:Toni Erdmann
