Editor’s Note: The following contains spoilers for Succession Season 4 Episode 7.Successionfans will remember that Connor Roy (Alan Ruck), who’s been “interested in politics from a very young age,” launched his presidential campaign all the way back in Season 2 — and on Sunday, we’ll finally get to see whether it was all worth it.Episode 8, titled “America Decides,”looks set to see the country head to the polls while Kendall (Jeremy Strong), Roman (Kieran Culkin), Shiv (Sarah Snook), Tom (Matthew Macfadyen), and Greg (Nicholas Braun) hold down the fort at ATN as the votes roll in.
Among the action will also be Connor, whose candidacy has been mocked by his siblings and seemingly the nation as a whole. And we understand why — to paraphrase Roman, it’s not exactly a “natural progression” to go from “never done nothing, never,” to “most important job in the world.” Connor has not a lick of political experience or work experience in general. But Conheads, don’t fret — though the eldest son’s odds may not be great, his role in the upcoming election may be bigger than you expect.
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Does Connor Have Any Shot at Becoming President?
Barring some bizarre, far-fetched twist, Connor has virtually no path to POTUS, and since this isSuccession, notRiverdale, we’re putting his chances firmly at zero. So why is this the case? Unfortunately, Connor’s dreams were pretty much dashed the moment that the Roy family decided to push Jeryd Mencken (Justin Kirk) as the Republican nominee instead of their own; this left Connor with no choice but to run as an independent or third-party candidate. The political system we see inSuccessionis dominated by two major parties, just as the US is in real life, putting a possible win out of reach.
Also confirming this is the fact that in the first episode of Season 4, set just 10 days before the election, Connor was only polling at a measly 1% — and even that was in danger of being “squeezed” down by his opponents. Clearly, this is not a large enough proportion of votes to win. It’s anyone’s guess what the threeremaining episodes ofSuccessionhave in storefor us, but one bet we feel pretty confident making is that the Oval Office will not be Connor’s next workplace. We’re a little relieved since his platform seems to revolve primarily around abolishing taxes, but the most likely alternative might be a great deal worse…
A Mencken Win Would Make Roman Happy, but Not Us
By now, we know that either neo-Nazi Mencken or Democrat Jimenez has this in the bag. Intel from the show’s most recent episode, “Tailgate Party,” tells us that Mencken’s preliminary polling numbers aren’t where he wants them to be, and he’s concerned that Connor is eating into his conservative base. We’re heading towards a tight race, and it truly feels like it could go either way. However the result swings, it’s bound to cause arift between the Roy siblings, with Shiv and Roman rooting for Jimenez and Mencken respectively.
As of episode 7, the friction has already started between Connor and Roman, with the latter requesting his older brother pull out of the race last minute on the instruction of Mencken’s team. It’s too late to remove Connor’s name from the ballot, but not too late to win over some of his supporters, who are likely to flock to Mencken as the second-best ideological match. Connor isn’t down to just give up on all the time and money he invested into his campaign so close to the finish line, and so Roman relays Mencken’s offers of various ambassadorial positions in exchange for his withdrawal. But these are all rejected by Connor and Willa (Justine Lupe), in a move that won’t win them the White House, but might just save the country from an alt-right regime.
‘Succession’Fans, Don’t Underestimate Connor’s 1%
Connor’s pitiful 1% might just end up making a whole lot of difference, as he himself predicted back in late Season 3, calling the small figure “enough to sway the race.” In “Tailgate Party,” he’s polling as high as 6% in reliably red state Alaska, so it appears that he’s been making small gains while Mencken’s votes have been going in the opposite direction. A lot has been said of Mencken’s extreme views, most recently by Waystar Studios exec Joy (Annabeth Gish), who voiced concern about ATN’s heavily favorable coverage of the fascist candidate; it’s apparent that Connor is attracting voters looking for someone right-wing, but slightly more moderate.
But can 1% really make such an impact? Well, yes. In key battleground states, there’s often less than 1% between the two major candidates — in the 2020 US election, for example, there was just a 0.23% gap between Biden and Trump in Georgia, and two other states — Arizona and Wisconsin — also had a margin of victory under 1%. Together, they added up to 37 electoral votes; in 2016, four states had a margin of victory under 1%, totaling 50 electoral votes. So it’s definitely plausible that Connor’s run turns out to be far more important than anyone could’ve anticipated — at the very least, it’ll lead to a much tenser fight, but it could even end up as the very thing to give Jimenez the winning edge.
This scenario is looking ever the more likely due to the troubling ramifications it would have for the Roys, ATN, and Waystar. It would be another personal loss for Roman, who’s been spiraling and self-destructing ever since Logan (Brian Cox) died. He’s already sabotaged his relationships with Connor and former mentorGerri Kellman (J. Smith-Cameron), and if anything can estrange him from Shiv and Kendall, it might just be this. On the bright side, it might give Kendall the opportunity to reshape the ATN narrative, something he’s newly interested in — though not heavily committed to — after seeing the impact it’s having on his daughter. Most of all, Shiv would be pleased — and she certainly could do with a pick-me-up afterlast week’s intense scenes. If Jimenez can see past her ATN connections, perhaps a government role could be in her future, as we know politics are where her strengths lie.
More broadly, it would present an additional challenge for ATN and Waystar going forwards, as they’d be forced to build a relationship with a president they’ve strongly aligned themselves against. Frankly, Kendall and Roman could do without the added stress, as they already have Matsson (Alexander Skarsgård) and the Gojo deal to navigate. Whatever happens, we’re pretty sure that Connor and Willa will remain unbothered, and continue to enjoy themselves asthe show’s least problematic couple.
